The Molyneux Paradox and Becoming Irrationally Rational

Captain John Parker

A Clash of Reason and Persuasion

Stefan Molyneux interviewed Scott Adams on his new book "Win Bigly". You can see the enlightening interview here. I have read about a third of Win Bigly and have thoroughly enjoyed it so far. Much of what I write in this post has been influenced by this book. In other words, Scott has been very persuasive in getting me to think about persuasion.

I highly recommend listening to these two intellectual giants. For those who don't know, Stefan Molyneux is a philosopher whose mission is to spread the ideas of liberty, reason, and evidence. The more rational people are, the better it is for individual freedom. Stefan is able to persuade the audience to think more logically through the clever use of humor, visualizations, and analogies.

It may appear to be a clash of two ideas having these two guys meet. The subtitle for Win Bigly is Persuasion in a World Where Facts Don't Matter. I argue that Stefan's mission falls in line with Scott Adams argument that facts don't matter. Stefan believes that the world can become more logical despite the world being highly illogical. Is this an irrational belief? I'll talk about The Molyneux Paradox later on.


Why Our Sense of Reality is Limited

Did you know we can only sense 4% of the universe? The other 96% is made of dark energy and dark matter. We can't even detect it. Senses vary between species. Dogs cannot see as many colors as we can. Bees can see UV light. Even our sight has blind spots. To compensate, the brain takes a best guess and fills in the holes. This is why optical illusions can exist. To learn more you can read this article, Your brain is a liar and can’t be trusted.

Scott Adams consistently said that Trump would win in a landslide. Mike Cernovich also correctly predicted a Trump victory, but believed it would be close. Who was right? Actually both had a point. If you just looked at electoral votes, it was a landslide. Point to Scott. On the other hand, the background states were decided on the slimmest of margins. A few thousands vote swing in a couple states would have led to a different election result. Point to Mike.

There is the faulty assumption that the absence of evidence is the evidence of absence. Problem is, "facts" are often up to interpretation. Whoever can present certain "facts" better wins. In addition, if our senses are limited and our instruments can only measure so much, how can we really be sure of reality? Maybe there are forces beyond our comprehension at play.


Persuasion in Engineering

Even in the tech and engineering world, persuasion is occurring. I forget where I heard about Professor Bob Metcalfe. It may have been Scott Adams as well, but maybe I'm just hallucinating 😉. You can read the following article to learn more about Metcalfe persuading the community to adapt to his Ethernet standards.

The main reason Ethernet - which in its quarter-century has accelerated from 3 megabits to 1 gigabit per second - prevailed over competing technologies like IBM's Token Ring is because of Metcalfe's toughness and charisma. He invented Ethernet, but he also made sure it became an open standard.

Notice how there were competing technologies. I'm sure these solutions were just as technically viable as Metcalfe's Ethernet. As you can see, our ability to gather enough facts to make an informed decision is limited even in the engineering world. It came down to toughness, leadership, and charisma for the final push.


The Molyneux Paradox

I've come up with the term The Molyneux Paradox. It is the irrational belief in rationality. It is a subset of a more general idea: Irrational Self Confidence, a term I picked up from Hunter Drew. Stefan's goal is to make the world more rational. He's an entrepreneur, and entrepreneurship is a perfect illustration of irrational self confidence. No one will believe more in the idea than the creator of the idea. The entrepreneur must be irrational enough to believe he can make a dent in the universe and persuade enough people to join his mission. Thus the Molyneux Paradox. Stefan must be irrational enough to believe in his mission that humanity can become more rational.


Irrational Self Confidence

Trump has an irrational belief in himself. Critics will call it narcissism. Supporters will call it a fighting spirit. Regardless, his positive thinking has led to remarkable achievements. The most recent being elected President of the United States. For someone with no previous political positions, Trump had to be irrationally confident in his abilities to win the presidency.

Anthony Johnson created the 21 Convention when he was 17. Everybody thought he was crazy. He had zero business experience and no money. But he had irrational self confidence, and he figured out how to make it work. This year he celebrated the 10 Year Anniversary of the 21 Convention, and I had the honor of meeting him in person. The 21 Convention has been held all over the globe and people from all over the globe come to attend the event. Belief in your mission is powerful stuff.


The Need for Standards

Another way to think about The Molyneux Paradox: You have to be irrationally rational. The rational part of you comes from holding yourself to a measurable standard. The irrational part of you continues to fight for that standard despite the world throwing obstacles in your way. Having accurate, measurable standards allows you to improve. Having irrational tenacity maintains that improvement.

On a macro level, empirical standards make things more efficient and reduces redundancies. We have particular standards for power lines and water systems so that we don't clutter communities with multiple lines and pipes. The same Ethernet cord standards are used internationally. This allows for seamless communication between nodes in a network. For things we can measure, we have empirical standards. Muh roads have a consistent width, wires come in particular gauges, etc.

But as I stated before, our measurements of reality are limited. On a macro level, we must be irrational and believe in a generally agreed upon set of standards to lay the foundation for civilization. Interactions between populations of humans are incredibly complex. And feelings are a terrible measurement due to our cognitive dissonances and confirmation biases.

This is why religion was invented. The Biblical standard provides a general template on how to treat others. This ethical foundation frees up brainpower to focus on positive creative endeavors. Having faith in the framework despite not knowing exactly why it works still leads to positive results. Parents give their kids guidance. The kid may not understand why it works until later in life. But that guidance is essential for proper development. A coach implements a new system. The players may not fully understand why it works until later in the season, but faith in the system and proper execution yields positive results.

Setting up a positive standard for yourself and taking actions within a system you've set up can lead to powerful transformations. Read Scott Adam's other book "How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big" to see a perfect example of this. A math example helps illustrate this point.


Become a Gravitational Constant

Position, Velocity, Acceleration

Here are three graphs. The left is position. The center is velocity. And the right is acceleration. Let's pretend that your position represents your quality of life. You've hit a rough patch and life is sucking hard. It feels like you are in free fall. People often only see your position and your velocity. "Boy, his position in life is still getting worse and he's still moving backwards"

But upon further inspection, you see that while the movement is backwards, the rate is not as negative as before. There is a slight improvement despite life still going the wrong way. Pretty soon, the crash hits bottom and life begins to bounce back. This is one big metaphor. Your force in this world depends on the strength of your vision or what direction you want to go. Your direction is your acceleration. Actions you take towards your direction are a positive acceleration.

The acceleration may be tiny. But as the graph shows, constant acceleration aka consistency in your actions is key to turning your life around. In fact, it can turn your life around and soon skyrocket your life to new heights. If you maintain your constant acceleration long enough, others will soon emulate you. You become a gravitational constant. And you have the confidence knowing that any future setbacks are temporary. A constant positive acceleration will turn dips back into positive outcomes.

Scott Adams mentioned that Trump got people thinking in his direction, even if his facts were wrong. Trump has an enormous gravitational pull. Even if critics think he's wrong, they eventually begin discussing things on his terms. The Wall seems inevitable now even though it was viewed as a joke when Trump first ran.

Be irrationally confident and stand up for your standards. Don't engage in a fight unless the enemy wishes to fight. And if the war must come, becoming irrationally savage. That is how you Win Bigly.